Last week some of you read my post regarding the US designation of cartels as terrorists and some of the ramifications. Recent news organizations have added to the narrative by reporting on US spy planes and CIA controlled drones gathering intelligence while over Mexico.

The designation terrorists organization isn’t just a prelude to economic sanctions, it’s a harbinger of potential lethal strikes on drug labs. Mexico’s president Sheinbaum seems to think so too as she addressed the very subject.

Briefing Document: US-Mexico Relations and the War on Cartels (February 2025)

Executive Summary:

The Trump administration is intensifying its efforts to combat Mexican drug cartels, particularly those involved in fentanyl production, through a combination of increased surveillance, potential designation as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), and pressure on the Mexican government. This approach includes covert CIA drone flights over Mexico, a move that, while reportedly begun under the Biden administration, is raising concerns about Mexican sovereignty. The Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, is responding cautiously, emphasizing the need for collaboration, not intervention, while also taking steps to address US concerns and exploring legal action against US gun manufacturers. The potential for further escalation, including military action, remains a significant concern.

Key Themes and Information:

• Increased US Surveillance:The US has significantly increased surveillance activities targeting Mexican cartels, including:
• Covert CIA drone flights over Mexican territory to identify fentanyl labs. These flights reportedly “go ‘well into sovereign Mexico.’”
• Expanded US military surveillance along the border, using aircraft such as U-2s and RC-135 Rivet Joints, although the military isn’t entering Mexican airspace.
• Creation of a special intelligence task force (140 analysts) to analyze surveillance data.
• The US military shares the surveillance intellegence with Mexican officials to help them “address the cartel violence in terms of sending more troops.”
• Fentanyl Focus:The primary objective of the increased surveillance is to locate and dismantle fentanyl labs.
• Fentanyl labs emit detectable chemicals, making them identifiable from the air.
• Designation of Cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs):The Trump administration plans to designate several Mexican cartels as FTOs. This is a symbolic move that “could, eventually, be followed by expanded operations by the U.S. military or intelligence agencies.”
• Mexico argues that the cartels are motivated by profit, not political aims, unlike traditional terrorist organizations.
• The designation could complicate asylum claims, potentially harming migrants forced to interact with cartels.
• Mexican Response and Concerns about Sovereignty:President Sheinbaum has stated that Mexico “will never tolerate an ‘invasion’ of its national sovereignty by the United States.”
• She emphasized the need for “collaboration and coordination, never subordination or interventionism, and even less invasion.”
• Sheinbaum has dismissed the drone surveillance program as part of “the dialogue, the coordination, that we have” with the U.S.
• Mexico is considering constitutional reforms to protect national sovereignty and stiffen penalties for arms trafficking. She also repeated a pledge that Mexico would expand its legal action against US gun manufacturers.
• Mexico’s defense secretary, Gen. Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, originally told reporters that the military had not received any request from the United States to fly in Mexican airspace and insisted that the surveillance flights had not violated international law as they flew above international waters.
• The Mexican government has deployed 10,000 troops to the border to combat smuggling, but the US wants more action against fentanyl labs.
• Potential for Escalation and Military Action:Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth did not rule out cross-border raids into Mexico. “All options are on the table,” he said.
• Elon Musk suggested that the FTO designation “means they’re eligible for drone strikes.”
• However, conducting airstrikes on fentanyl labs poses a high risk of civilian casualties. “Conducting an airstrike on fentanyl labs would probably cause catastrophic fatalities, as they are often inside homes in urban areas.”
• Former officials believe that the US military and intelligence agencies are likely to increase training with Mexican authorities.
• Personnel Appointments:Trump has nominated Ronald Johnson, a former CIA paramilitary officer, as ambassador to Mexico.
• Joe Kent, a former Army Green Beret and CIA paramilitary officer, has been appointed as director of the National Counterterrorism Center.
• US-Mexico Troubled History:Sheinbaum’s comments reflected the troubled history between the two allied nations: US forces have invaded Mexico at least 10 times and in 1846 claimed nearly half of the country’s territory for the US.

Key Quotes:

• “The flights go ‘well into sovereign Mexico.’” – U.S. Official
• “This cannot be an opportunity for the US to invade our sovereignty…With Mexico, it is collaboration and coordination, never subordination or interventionism, and even less invasion.” – Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum
• “Conducting an airstrike on fentanyl labs would probably cause catastrophic fatalities, as they are often inside homes in urban areas.” – Source familiar with the program.
• “All options are on the table,” – Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
• “means they’re eligible for drone strikes” – Elon Musk, referring to FTO designation

Potential Implications:

• Increased tensions between the US and Mexico.
• Risk of unintended escalation and potential military conflict.
• Impact on asylum seekers and border security.
• Potential for legal challenges and diplomatic friction.